Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 12:55 PM AT · arrives 4:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
SJU is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.