Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 404 · SJU → RDU
departs 12:55 PM AT · arrives 4:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SJU that day
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.