Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
B6 509 · BOS → JAX
departs 4:50 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.