Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 509 · BOS → JAX
departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 7:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at JAX that day
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.