Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

COPA · FLIGHT CM 227 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

CM 227 · MIA → PTY

departs 6:42 PM ET · arrives 8:42 PM EST

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 227 · MIA → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?