Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1218
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1218 · AUS → DTW
departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 4:02 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.