Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1278
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 1278 · CHS → DTW
departs 6:52 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 11%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave CHS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at CHS that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
CHS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.