Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1428 · JFK → MIA
departs 7:33 PM ET · arrives 10:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 59%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.