DL 1521 · SNA → ATL

departs 11:30 AM PT · arrives 6:45 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SNA is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1521 · SNA → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?