Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
DL 1521 · SNA → ATL
departs 11:29 AM PT · arrives 6:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.