Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 1578 · MSP → ORD
departs 7:12 AM CT · arrives 8:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 19% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.