Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1617
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 1617 · ATL → GSO
departs 8:51 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 18%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 1,400 ft
Visibility 7 mi
Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt
Ceiling 200 ft
Visibility 1.5 mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.