Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

DL 164 · MSP → AMS

departs 9:50 PM CT · arrives 11:46 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 9pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 164 · MSP → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?