Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 2459 · LAX → PDX
departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 6:36 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Today 29%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.36 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.