Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2521
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2521 · MSP → RDU
departs 10:21 AM CT · arrives 1:51 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from MSP are often late
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.