Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2565 · BWI → MSP
departs 7:10 PM ET · arrives 9:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.