Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2594
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2594 · MSP → PHL
departs 2:25 PM CT · arrives 6:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 29%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late
↑
2pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.11 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.