Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2616
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 2616 · LAX → SEA
departs 9:15 PM PT · arrives 12:03 AM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
29%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LAX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.