Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 2653 · LAX → LAS
departs 9:25 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±0 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,571 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.