Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8894
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
DL 8894 · MCO → ATL
departs 8:26 PM ET · arrives 10:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sat 10/31 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ATL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.