Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8933
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
DL 8933 · MIA → MCO
departs 3:01 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.