Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1204 · MIA → PHL
departs 8:52 PM ET · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 36%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.