Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 1741 · RDU → IAH
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.