Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1741 · RDU → IAH
departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.