Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 1823 · SJU → MCO
departs 3:10 AM AT · arrives 6:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 19%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.12 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.