Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1823
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1823 · SJU → MCO
departs 3:10 AM AT · arrives 6:10 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 10/28 20%
Thu 10/29 28%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 19%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
SJU is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.