Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 2729 · RDU → TPA
departs 4:44 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.