Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2729
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2729 · RDU → TPA
departs 4:42 PM ET · arrives 6:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 34%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.