Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3043
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 3043 · MCO → ORD
departs 5:12 AM ET · arrives 7:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from MCO are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.