Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 3581 · SNA → SFO
departs 7:53 PM PT · arrives 9:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±10 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.