Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3581 · SNA → SFO
departs 7:51 PM PT · arrives 9:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 49%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.