Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4242 · RNO → LAS
departs 6:27 PM PT · arrives 7:59 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±13 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.