Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4242
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4242 · RNO → LAS
departs 9:08 PM PT · arrives 10:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 26%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±15 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.