Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4404 · MCO → PHL
departs 7:08 PM ET · arrives 9:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.16 in
PHL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.