Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4404 · MCO → PHL
departs 7:06 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 45%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
7pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.