Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4462 · PHL → SJU
departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 46%
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft forecast at SJU that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.