Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4462 · PHL → SJU
departs 8:03 PM ET · arrives 11:58 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 48%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 46%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SJU that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SJU (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.