Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
F9 4578 · SAN → PHX
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 3:27 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 64%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.