Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4578
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4578 · SAN → PHX
departs 1:55 PM PT · arrives 3:26 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/29 44%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
64%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
64%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
64%
Yes 64%
No 36%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.