Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 688
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
F9 688 · DEN → DCA
departs 11:25 AM MT · arrives 4:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 28%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.