Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
IB 380 · SJU → MAD
departs 8:30 PM AT · arrives 9:40 AM CET
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAD?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.