Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 5411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

KG 5411 · DFW → CVN

departs 11:30 AM CT · arrives 12:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at CVN more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVN?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Arrivals into CVN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 5411 · DFW → CVN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVN?