Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DENVER AIR CONNECTION · FLIGHT KG 5411 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

KG 5411 · DFW → CVN

departs 11:20 AM CT · arrives 11:42 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at CVN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVN?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at CVN that day

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into CVN at that hour are usually not late

↓ CVN usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVN (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.72 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

KG 5411 · DFW → CVN

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVN?