LH 461 · MIA → MUC

departs 7:41 PM ET · arrives 9:47 AM CET

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MUC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.16 in

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 461 · MIA → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?