Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3336 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

MQ 3336 · DCA → PVD

departs 10:44 PM ET · arrives 12:16 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PVD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PVD

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

PVD (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3336 · DCA → PVD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PVD?