Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3427
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3427 · MIA → BHM
departs 10:56 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 14%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BHM at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.