Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3441 · DCA → CMH
departs 9:55 PM ET · arrives 11:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.