Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3467
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Yesterday
MQ 3467 · PHX → SBA
departs 1:38 PM MT · arrives 3:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29
Sun 11/1 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.