Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3509
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3509 · OKC → DCA
departs 5:31 PM CT · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from OKC are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OKC
Weather at each end
OKC (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.