Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
MQ 3573 · MIA → TPA
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 33h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.